In the Italian economic landscape, the Made in Italy sector emerges as one of the driving forces
main of domestic export. According to the study Cerved Group SpA “Made in Italy Monitor
2025”, companies active in this dimension – equal to approximately 76,000 companies, or 7.8% of the
joint-stock companies – alone generate 47.2% of Italian exports, or over 200 billion euros.
In 2023 these companies recorded a total turnover close to 637 billion euros and
a value added of 155 billion, representing 17.2% of total capital companies
italian.
The decade 2014-2023 saw Made in Italy grow at an average annual rate of +4.3%,
higher than Italian manufacturing (+3.7%).
Key sectors that have driven this performance include Means of Transport and
the Agri-foodstuffs (both growing at around +5%) and Automation and Mechanics (+4.6%).
Geographically, 27% of Made in Italy companies operate in the North-West, 25.7% in the North-
East, 22.2% in the Centre and 18.6% in the South.
From a capital and credit point of view, the CGS (Cerved Group Score) indicator reports a
significant improvement: in the last ten years the share of “safe” enterprises has risen from 14.4% to
35.7%, while those “at risk” fell from ’8.6% to 6.1%.
Outlook to 2026
According to Cerved estimates, revenues from the Made in Italy sector will grow only slightly in
next years, with a +0.2% forecast for 2025 and a +1.5% for 2026.
It should be noted, however, that there are disparities between sectors: for example, the Means of Transport are expected
contracting (-1% in 2025) due to the automotive crisis; bucking the trend
Pharmaceutical, with annual rates above +4%; Agri-food is also positive, with growth
cumulated estimated at around’8%.
From the point of view of profitability, the EBITDA margin of Made in Italy enterprises remains above
the national average, with a difference of around 0.4 percentage points.
As regards the profitability of invested capital (ROIC), Made in Italy companies
should hold steady at 6.5%, while manufacturing more generally will fall to 6.3%
in 2026.
Risks and sustainability
On the environmental front, approximately one in four Made in Italy companies is exposed to high risks
linked to extreme climate events, a percentage higher than the national average (one in five) and
which requires investment in the ecological transition.
On the ESG front, more than 60% of Made in Italy companies obtain an “excellent” rating
in the Cerved Rating Agency ratings, in line with the manufacturing total.
Financial analysis
From a long-term perspective (5-10 years), the Made in Italy sector represents an opportunity
interesting but with potentially modest returns and risks to monitor. The fact that it generates
almost half of Italian exports make it a pillar of the national economy: a driver that can
confer stability in volatile periods. However the very moderate growth forecasts (+0.2% in the
2025, +1.5% in 2026) indicate that the expansion potential is now in a mature phase.
From an evaluative point of view, this suggests that investors will have to focus on distinctive factors:
niche leadership, high value-added exports, resilient production chains and ESG governance
solid. The improvement in the credit profile is a positive factor: the growth in the share of enterprises
“safe” reduces systemic risk in the sector.
But exposure to climate risks and weak recovery in the most vulnerable sectors (such as automotive) require vigilance. In terms of allocation
of capital, an investor could favor segments of Made in Italy with strong dynamics (e.g.
Pharmaceutical, premium agri-food) rather than shrinking sectors.
From a valuation perspective, the above-average EBITDA margin differential suggests a quality premium,
but the modest growth expected limits the possibility of high returns in the short term. In
conclusion: Made in Italy is a strategic asset for the country and for investors oriented to the
stability, to exports and to sustainability. But it requires careful selection, medium-term vision and
attention to signs of innovation and resilience.